USA Today Logo

There's no mass shooting epidemic, but fear epidemic is real

Even as we welcome the decline in mass killings, this is still no time to give up the fight for reasonable and effective gun safety laws.

James Alan Fox Opinion contributor
Published Jan. 14, 2026, 5:04 a.m. ET

In what may surprise many Americans, 2025 ended with fewer mass killings ‒ defined as assaults resulting in four or more victim fatalities ‒ than any year since at least 2006.

As someone who has studied mass killings for more than 40 years and manages the Associated Press/USA TODAY/Northeastern University Mass Killing Database, I’ve kept a close eye on the social factors and public policies that have contributed to upward and downward swings in mass killings. Our database shows that the number of incidents, almost 80% of which involve firearms, has decreased by 60% over the past two years.

There has also been a significant two-year decline of nearly 40% in mass shootings that are not necessarily deadly, based on my analysis of the Gun Violence Archive.

Despite the encouraging news as of late, this is no time to relax or suggest that sensible gun safety measures are not needed. The new year very well could bring a rebound in the prevalence of mass murder, as steep declines are typically followed by an uptick. We need to consider strategies to ensure that an increase, if one does occur, is modest.

Nearly half of deadly mass shootings happen at home

One approach to gun safety, in particular, is the secure storage of firearms. Nearly half of deadly mass shootings occur in private homes where a firearm, ostensibly owned for the purpose of protecting the household, is ultimately used against family members in a sudden rage or out of deep despair. Some are at the hands of minors with access to an unsecured firearm in the home who then murder their parents and siblings.

Even though most mass shooters specifically target relatives, rival gangs or drug traffickers, the fears of Americans surround the horrific but rare incidents ‒ at most 10 per year ‒ in which an armed assailant indiscriminately shoots and kills large numbers of innocent victims in a public setting.

The level of fear, although disproportionate to the risk, is certainly understandable, as these can occur at any time, at any place and to anyone, without warning.

Easy access to high-powered firearms and large-capacity magazines are prime contributors to such slaughters. Our research has demonstrated, for example, that states requiring permits to purchase guns have significantly fewer public mass shootings, and that those with limits on magazine size have fewer casualties when there is such an incident.

Even with the recent drop in mass killings, they remain a significant problem that must not be ignored. The United States is home to about 4% of the world’s population yet, by our estimate, accounts for 16% to 26% of all public mass shootings globally.

Crafting effective prevention strategies requires calm deliberation, not ill-conceived quick fixes in the emotion-filled aftermath of bloodshed. The move in Congress to make concealed carry provisions reciprocal among the states (like with driver’s licenses) would create a more perilous landscape given the minimal requirements implemented in certain areas of the country.

'Mass shooting epidemic' is more hyperbole than reality

The downward slide in mass violence over the past two years largely reflects a statistical phenomenon known as "regression to the mean," a return to a more usual level of occurrence after a several year spike in wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The number of mass killings and of less lethal mass shootings in 2025 mirrors levels of a decade ago. To a lesser extent, the decrease in extreme forms of homicide parallels the dip in the overall homicide rate since the large surge that occurred amid the 2020 outbreak of the pandemic.

Although the frequent claims of a "mass shooting epidemic" are more hyperbole than reality, there truly is an epidemic of fear fueled by the extensive media coverage afforded deadly attacks in schools, churches, restaurants and other public settings.

Indeed, the percentage of Americans indicating that public mass shootings are a significant source of worry has nearly tripled, from 16% in 2015 to 44% in 2025, based on the Chapman University Survey of American Fears.

Moreover, a 2019 survey commissioned by the American Psychological Association found that a third of U.S. adults reported having avoided certain places or events to prevent them from falling victim of a mass shooting.

While one tragic massacre is one too many, as often said, the recent drop should calm some of the concern. Even as we welcome the decline in mass killings (as well as murders overall), this is still no time to give up the fight for reasonable and effective gun safety laws.

Otherwise, the recent drop in mass killings could prove to be short-lived as more lives are senselessly cut short.

James Alan Fox is the Lipman Professor of Criminology, Law and Public Policy at Northeastern University and a member of the USA TODAY Board of Contributors, and coauthor of “Extreme Killing: Understanding Serial and Mass Murder.” He oversees the Associated Press/USA TODAY/Northeastern University Mass Killing Database.
Website: https://jamesalanfox.com Follow him on Twitter @jamesalanfox